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A look at the ES4PC Circuit Standings, Invitational, and Deflagration.

TCL Tales - January 10, 2018
Introduction:

Throughout the last 6 months, the qualification events for the European Smash 4 Pro Circuit have been held across Europe, and with February 10th the season will come to an end with the French qualifier event "Sweet Impact - Deflagration".
While not far away, the current circuit standings have been going under the radar for a lot of people, and rightfully so with not a lot of advertisement or updates on it, so leave it to me to keep you updated on it all, as we take a look at the current standings, the last qualifier, and potential candidates for the invitational.

Current standings:
For the invitational and final of the circuit:
-5 players are automatically qualified through 1st place finishes at every event
-10 players are qualified through gathering the most number of points
-1 player is invited through "wildcard" (imagine a popularity contest)

The current qualified players are:
Glutonny (#1 at Albion 2)
Sodrek (#1 at Geneva Gaming Convention 2017)
cyve (#2 at PPT Berlin, with Locus being ineligible due to NA residence despite 1st place)
IxisNaugus (#1 at Tech Republic 3)

The players in the running for point qualification are the following:



There is a couple more currently sitting at 85 points who still have a good chance, but we will get to that later.
As it stands #6-#15 (LoNg0uw to El_Pitikla) are qualified through points, but with the last qualifier coming up that will most likely change. These players are not locked in just yet and could still be kicked out of their spot, should certain players enter Top 8 at Deflagration...


Deflagration, the last chance:

As most of you are probably not familiar with the point distribution, here is the point distribution for each placing at the event.

Currently the last player who qualifies for most points is El_Pitikla, who is at 140 points.
Once you reach 140 points, you are therefore a possible candidate for the invitational; once you reach 170 points you are more or less guaranteed a spot, unless Deflagration has an unbelievable Top 8 that would feature neither Homika, cyve, or Glutonny for example.
So let us see who has a shot at making the invitational through point qualification:

Homika:

Currently sitting at 130 points just outside the range, and entered for Deflagration, Homika is looking like a strong candidate to make the ES4PC Invitational.
To get past the current line, he would only have to secure a 25. place, which might as well be guaranteed knowing Homika's strength as a player.
Any placing in Top 8 would put him above 200 points, and basically making an invite a sure thing; and as the current #4 PR player in France, that would absolutely look like a possibility for the strongest Rosalina in Europe.


iStudying:

iStudying is surely one of the strongest players in Europe at current times, having won "Fortuna" in late 2017 and finishing 4th at Tech Republic 3, should this man attend Deflagration he is sure to impress and secure himself a spot in the circuit Top 10 through points.
With 138 points to his name iStudying, similarly to Homika, would only need a Top 8 placing to secure his spot. Any other placing inside Top 64 would put him above El_Pitikla and eligible, too, of course increasing the chance of him not being overtaken by anybody else the higher his placement at Deflagration gets.


Zudenka:

Similarly to the player before him, Zudenka is currently still in the running, and would only need a Top 8/9 finish at Deflagration to make his way to 155 points or higher, surpassing El_Pitikla, and putting his name on the board.
While arguably being one level below other contenders such as Glutonny, iStudying, or Homika, Zudenka still has a good shot at making his way into the invitational through Deflagration.


Purple~H:

Despite already having 155 points, Purple~H's spot in the invitational has not been secured just yet. With Homika having a high chance to surpass him, it would only need one more person to outperform him in points to kick him out of his spot.
While the Cloud main from Germany has shown interest in attending the event he is not confirmed for the event as of right now, and a potential skip out might just cost him his spot!


Supahsemmie:

Making an explosive Top 8 appearance at Albion 2, Supahsemmie has been a big threat at every event he is competing at. Should he decide to attend Deflagration he surely is one of the candidates who would be able to get a Top 8 placing at the event.
A 7th place finish would put him at 185 points, which is a safe spot to be in for qualification.
As the current strongest Mario in Europe the chances are looking good, and only a certain few top players or an upset at the event could be able to stop him on his way.


Rule of thumb:
I've been going over certain players, but to finish it off here is a rule of thumb for what players need to accomplish to (probably) get into the invitational through points.

100 points: The player needs to place anywhere in Top 8 to have a good chance to keep their spot. 9th place would put them at a tie with Marcbri and Purple~H for qualification, therefore not being guaranteed.

85 points: These players need to get 5th place or higher to surely qualify for the invitational. Currently only Tsunayoshi, M, or Sim~Max would have a good shot at creating this scenario, given their skill and current standing.

55 points: Players on 55 points would need a ridiculous run and enter Top 4 to get above 180 points; the players who are currently sitting at 55 points who have a shot at making it would be: Light, Ramses, Afro Smash

Any player below 55 points would need 2nd place, which is worth 200 points, to get into the invitational.
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TL;DR:

Auto-qualified:
Glutonny
Sodrek
cyve
IxisNaugus

The players sure to make it in through points are:
LoNg0uw (236)
Meru (210)
DKHo (205)
Destany (200)
wusi (170)

A good chance at making it in:
MagiMagi (160)
Elexiao (160)

Might make it, might be kicked out:
Purple~H (155)
Marcbri (155)
El_Pitikla (140)

Good chance at qualifying through Deflagration placing:
iStudying (138)
Homika (130)
Supahsemmie (100)
Zudenka (100)
Tsunayoshi (85)



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