Observations 1: Smash Ultimate Metagame Predictions
Z2G - November 9, 2018With all of the new news about Smash Ultimate and the hype being generated, there are some small strategies that I believe will start taking place in the competitive metagame. Note that these are just predictions based on footage and statements from players who have played, observed, or experienced the mechanics of Smash Ult.
Shielding
There is no more dashing through a player or dashing through their shield. While this definitely hurts some character strategies, I must point out that dash attacks and aerials can still cross-up. There may be strategic merit to this new mechanic. Dashing into a shield pushes the shielding player away. There are two scenarios I foresee this becoming part of the game meta.
- Pushing shielding players into the corner instead of attacking and risk parrying
- Pushing shielding aggressors looking for a parry back into center stage or into a corner
This may be a legitimate strategy because of the mechanics of Smash Ultimate. Firstly, grabs have been universally nerfed, thus shield grabs have been universally nerfed. Secondly, players can jab out of dash. Jabs are usually one of a characters fastest ground tools. Players can also tech grabs if timed correctly. Thirdly, Rolls have become less efficient after repeated use.
This idea works because out of shield options have become worse. If a player wants to parry, they must hold their shield until an attack comes. If the threat becomes positioning based due to the shield pushing, then the player will likely drop shield rather than constantly risk being grabbed and pushed to ledge. In this way, the pushing player has the aggressive advantage on out of shield options.
This strategy is character dependent. Characters with moves significantly faster than the shielding opponent's grab will have a much higher advantage. Using Smash 4 frame data, 1-2 frame jab characters would be best at this. Having a fast jab will be significantly more important in Smash Ultimate if this is a used strategy. Fast characters with good dash dance ranges will also benefit, though this will depend on some dash dance mechanics. If the dash dance can push a shield, be acted out of with a jab, and have its range adjusted, pushing a shield with a dash dance repeatedly will be an amazing position and pressure tool.
Parrying
Parrying warrants its own section away from shielding. Parrying significantly reduces the effectiveness of certain strategies, particularily multihit moves. Multihit moves were difficult to deal with before, and on crossup, there were sometimes no direct punish options. Now these can be parried and countered effectively. Characters like Lucas, Megaman, and more may have more trouble with approaching shields due to this. Expect people to learn the timing and number of hits to parry like players have learned when to tech moves like Ganon Dive.
Another interesting note from the current footage is purely on the strengths and weaknesses of parries. Parrying scales with the damage of the move parried. Due to the seemingly frozen state of the attacker and the general strength of aerials, parrying seems highly effective on rising and falling aerials. However grounded pokes may be safer to throw out due to this same scaling. Weak ground poke moves may have similar timing mixups as perfect shielding in previous games or still be safe and work to 'check' the parry. I believe the strongest characters will be able to work around parrying through strong pokes, consistent poking hitboxes, or the ability to break shield easily.
Of course, all of this analysis depends on the strength of parrying. If parrying is too strong or too weak, the game changes dramatically. Too strong, and power characters become the rulers of the game, being able to always force a strong advantage state. Too weak, and poking characters are free to harass. Time will tell. I predict that characters with long and weak hitboxes or extra mobility will be strong at the start of the game. Yes, this means I predict Cloud to be amazing to start, but I also think Marcina and Mii Swordfighter have chances to be incredible depending on the strength of parrying.
Corner Pressure
It appears that corner pressure is extremely difficult to deal with. In smash 4, characters often could roll past pressure with minimal punishments until it is read hard. Smash Ultimate makes that strategy unforgiving. Statements I've seen from players note that they would consistently be up smashed by large, fast up smashes. Zelda's in particular, appears strong for the purpose of catching jumps and rolls.
Attacking from the corner may seem to be a decent bet, but this comes at the risk of parrying. I think that immediately characters with fast, large hitboxes that reach high will find notable success. The universal buffs to jump squats makes jumping seem like one of the best options from the corner. Jumping, however, has always been a commitment. Smash Ultimate did not change that. The corner is where we will see players falter and thrive.
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About this series
Observations is simply that. Observations of the Smash scene and my thoughts on what may or have occured. It is meant to be casual and not have regular publication. Thanks for reading! - Z2G
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