Observations 2: The Triangle
Z2G - December 9, 2018Hello everyone. This Observation is based on what I've noticed in this first weekend of Smash Ultimate as well, playing the game itself, and past thoughts.
Review
I'd like to check back on previous thoughts. Firstly, right now, aggressively attacking is paramount. It is part of the reason why Chrom and Roy are very highly valued. Their ability to attack appears to be 2nd to none. This is partly due to their range and speed. At the same time, it appears that no one this first weekend worked on parrying as a key mechanic. Parrying appears to be the natural counter to constant aggressive attacks.
Other than attacking, movement has been a huge focus so far. Inklings in particular may have the strongest ground movement in the game. That's apparent just by this first weekend of playing the character as well as other's thoughts.
The times I've seen parrying used have been critical. It gives so much time to punish hard. Smash attacks from a parry, to be frank, easy and amazing. However, due to this being a completely new mechanic, it is not seeing much use.
The 'Weapon Triangle'
I'd like to propose a prediction of how the metagame and new triangle similar to the fire emblem Swords>Axes>Lances>Swords triangle works. As I see it, the triangle for Smash Ultimate is Attack>Movement>Parry>Attack. Keep in mind, this is a generalized and oversimplified explanation. Whiff punishing with movement on attacks is a strong counter to attacking as well. However, attacks stuff movement pending the size of the attack so it directly counters a person moving in and out of a specific spatial range. Whiff punishes, by nature of the low lag of especially aerials, are not immediate threats to a stock as well due to their required speed (though this may lead to a win condition pending character and setup).
Using this triangle, I believe I can explain the current meta. As of right now, because parry is an underutilized mechanic, attacking is dominant. Players are realizing this and as such, fast sword characters with strong neutral pokes are dominating a lot of the metagame. Characters such as Chrom, Roy, Ike, Marcina, the Links, and Ridley are potentially very strong until we collectively learn how to parry consistently. Other characters, particularly heavies with super armor or other armor mechanics are also buffed in this current meta. This is because their armor mechanics beat attacks naturally without parry.
Predictions
Aside from swords, as usual with a new smash game, familiarity is what is winning in the end. This weekend, Ness in particular has done fairly well, which is outside this meta. The ability to easily edgeguard with up smash and down smash allows Ness to win decisively vs offstage opponents, and as players are learning the limits of their characters, it is difficult to edgeguard Ness. This is consistent with nearly every smash game since Brawl's release and should not be unexpected. As the meta develops, I think Ness will fall off.
Once parrying is established, I expect movement and whiff punish characters to be significantly better. Dropping shield takes 11 frames, a 4 frame increase from Smash 4. Characters with incredible dash dances such a Meta Knight, Cloud, and Inkling may be better in the future metagame. While Chrom and Roy will likely fall-off a little bit, they also have great movement options and the ability to pressure a shield safely is still a valuable asset to have in this game.
About this series
Observations is simply that. Observations of the Smash scene and my thoughts on what may or have occured. It is meant to be casual and not have regular publication. Thanks for reading! - Z2G
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